Christmas Bay, TX

Forty-eight hours of SSW at a 3.0 kt mean has not pushed much water, but it has not dirtied a thing either - the pass is settled and salty. Dawn wind swings W to NW at 4 kt, technically the wrong quarter, far too weak to blow this system out. Tide climbs steadily into the 9:22 AM high, then dumps 0.97 ft from the 5:32 PM high down to the 11:42 PM low. Slick water at sunrise means you can walk a topwater and feel a 1/8 oz jighead, so lures get the edge.

Start with a Super Spook Jr in bone on the flat behind the sand bars while it is slick - walk it slow with long pauses, the blowups come on the pause. When the sun gets up, go to a 1/8 oz jighead with a Down South Super Model in Chicken on a Chain, or a Bass Assassin Sea Shad in Opening Night, and drift the color change on the drop-off. Short strikes mean tie on a MirrOdine XL and twitch it dead slow. The 5:32 PM high on the way out is the second-best water of the day with the same jighead.

Water is 89.6 F, so live croaker earns its keep once the sun is high - tail-hooked on a 3/0 kahle, free-lined with one small split shot, worked down the deep side of the bar. Early, run a live shrimp 18 inches under a popping cork along the Christmas Bay grass edges. Fish the drop from up on the bar and let the current carry the bait; do not wade toward the channel to reach it.

Two days of feeble SSW at 3 to 4.5 kt has left the pass salty and settled rather than scoured clean. Gulf side of the throat is the greenest water you will find; back toward Christmas Bay it carries a light stain that the light NW dawn breeze will not make worse.

Reds will cruise the sand in singles and pairs on the morning rise - gold spoon or a weightless Sea Shad thrown ahead of them. Flounder are staging at the gut mouths for the fall move; a 1/4 oz jighead crawled slow, or a finger mullet on a light Carolina rig, picks them off.

Water is not the problem - NE at 4 kt is the wrong quarter but it is nothing, and the SSW history has the pass green. Tide rises into the 9:37 AM high, then makes a long seven-hour push from the 11:50 AM low up to the 7:13 PM high, so there is movement all day. Lightning is what costs this day: 54 to 57 percent from 8 AM on, thunderstorms likely by afternoon. Lures are fully workable under 9 kt, but plan on a dawn trip and be off the water when the first cell builds.

Gray light and a rain-cooled surface is prime walk-the-dog water - MirrOlure She Dog in chrome/black, loud and steady over the bar behind the pass. If they will not commit, drop to a Lil John on a 1/4 oz jighead in plum/chartreuse and swim it just off bottom on the last of the rise. Once the tide turns out at 9:37, fan-cast the current seam with a Sea Shad in Opening Night. Watch the sky - the first rumble, you leave.

Live shrimp under a rattling cork is the storm-day bait - the noise carries in rain-flecked water. Set it two feet deep and drift it along the sand bar edge on the incoming. If you can stay out past midday, a live croaker free-lined on the deep edge covers the long afternoon rise. No metal rods in the air with 57 percent thunderstorm coverage.

Nothing in the measured 48-hour history at 3.0 kt SSW has stirred this system, so clarity holds. If a storm dumps hard on the bay side, the back lakes will color up first while the throat stays green.

Falling barometer ahead of the cells usually gets the reds moving - a live mullet on a fish-finder rig in the guts, or a spoon on the shallow sand. Flounder will sit right in the mouth of the drains once the rain starts pushing water off the marsh.

Best card of the week. Two days of light southerly flow in front of it and only 4 kt of S wind on the day means nothing gets stirred - this is as clean as the pass gets in September. Water climbs from the 12:32 AM low all the way to the 9:54 AM high, so it is moving hard through first light, and the minor at moonrise, 5:59 to 6:59 AM, sits right on the front of it. New moon, light wind, clean water: you can see the fish, control the lure, and get a look at your own bait, so lures get the edge.

Topwater until the sun burns the slick off - Super Spook Jr in bone, or a She Dog in chrome/black, walked slow along the bar edge with the incoming washing across it. When the blowups quit, go 1/8 oz jighead and a Down South Super Model in Texas Roach or morning glory; keep it natural and translucent, because in this water they get a long look. Long casts, 20 lb fluorocarbon leader, and let it fall on a slack line - most of the bites come on the drop.

Past 9 AM, live croaker is the play - tail-hooked on a 3/0 kahle and free-lined down the deep side of the bar. The water is 89.6 F and the heavy trout go deep and sulky by mid-morning; croaker makes them mad enough to eat when a plastic will not. Before that, live shrimp under a cork over the Christmas Bay grass. Stay on the bar and let the current work for you - no wading toward the channel.

Sustained S and SSW at 195 to 203 degrees for the full 48 hours is exactly the direction that walks Gulf water in, and the 9-hour incoming Thursday morning drags more of it through. Expect true green in the throat and over the bars, with only a light stain where the bayous dump on the Christmas Bay side.

New-moon incoming pushes reds up onto the sand shallow enough to see wakes - a 1/4 oz gold spoon or a live finger mullet under a cork. Flounder are stacking at the drain mouths; slow-drag a 3/8 oz jighead through the cuts on the top of the tide.

SW at 9 kt through dawn is the one wrong-direction breeze of the week, but 9 kt does not blow this system out - it just puts a little working color on the bay shorelines it lands on. Tide is good: a long climb off the 1:17 AM low into the 10:11 AM high, then a fall to the 1:17 PM low with the major, 12:43 to 2:43 PM, sitting on the tail of it. Rain odds run 43 percent midday. Lures still work in the morning, but with 88 F water and a midday major the bait rod is just as strong, so call it even.

With a little color and a SW chop, go louder - She Dog in chrome/black at first light, then a Bass Assassin Sea Shad or Lil John in plum/chartreuse on a 1/4 oz jighead. Fish the windward side of the bar where the wind is stacking bait against it and work the lure slow enough that they can track it. If the sun opens up midday, downsize to a 1/8 oz head with a Super Model in Chicken on a Chain and fish the deeper edge on the fall.

Best bait play is the 12:43 to 2:43 PM major over the fall to the 1:17 PM low - live croaker free-lined on the deep side, or a live shrimp under a popping cork drifted with the SW breeze along the guts. Croaker is the better bet in 88 F water when the sun is straight up. Fish it from solid bottom; the falling tide through the cuts is not something to be standing in.

The overnight SW at 9 kt is the first breeze this week with enough of the wrong direction in it to matter, and it will stir the shorelines it blows onto. Beach side and the throat stay sandy green; the Christmas Bay shoreline taking the wind will be noticeably off-color.

Off-color water on a windward shoreline is redfish weather - a live mullet under a cork or a gold spoon worked through the stirred edge. Flounder will hold in the clean seam right where the murky water meets the sandy green, on a slow-dragged jighead.

South at 13 kt overnight and 9 to 13 kt all day - right direction, but enough of it to chop the pass and knock the clarity down a notch. Tide is still good, a long incoming off the 1:58 AM low into the 10:26 AM high, then a fall to the 2:03 PM low. Lures are workable on the windward edges with a heavier head, but with the water stirred and 89 F by afternoon, bait broadcasts scent through the chop and gets the nod today.

Step up to a 3/8 oz jighead so you can keep contact in the chop - Down South Super Model in Opening Night or a Sea Shad in plum/chartreuse, drifted along the windward guts and bumped on bottom. Work the slicks and any wind-driven color line hard. A She Pup in bone will still get eaten in the calmer pockets behind the bar at first light, but do not spend all morning on it.

This is a popping cork day - live shrimp two feet under a loud cork, drifted with the south wind along the bar and the grass edges, popped hard every few feet so they can hear it in the stirred water. If you want a better class of fish, free-line a live croaker on the deep side of the drop after 10. The chop makes a drift easy; keep it from a boat or from solid footing well back off the channel.

Sustained S at 13 kt keeps Gulf water coming in, so the throat stays sandy green, but it is enough breeze to stir the shallows and put a real stain on the Christmas Bay shoreline that is taking the fetch. Fish the greenest water you can find and do not waste the morning in the mud.

Stained windward shorelines will hold reds all day - live mullet under a cork or a piggy perch on a Carolina rig. Flounder move to the lee side out of the stirred water; slow-drag the cuts where the bottom is still firm.

Wind eases from Saturday, S to SE at 9 to 13 kt, and the water cleans back up to something you can fish a lure in. Best move of the day is the fall from the 10:36 AM high down to the 2:49 PM low, 0.72 ft over four hours, and the major from 2:13 to 4:13 PM sits right on the end of it. Downside is heat - 87 to 88 F air over 88 F water in the middle of the day makes the trout sulky. Lures and bait score even, so bring both and let the sun decide.

Fish the outgoing with a 1/4 oz jighead and a Down South Super Model in Chicken on a Chain, casting up-current and letting it wash down the drop-off with the flow - do not swim it, let the tide do the work. Texas Roach if the water looks green, plum/chartreuse where the wind has it working. Dawn crowd can still get a Super Spook Jr blowup on the flats before the tide fills, but the falling water in the afternoon is the better bite.

Live croaker is the honest answer with 88 F water in the middle of the day - free-lined on a 3/0 kahle, worked down the deep side of the bar on the fall so it swims in front of the fish holding out of the sun. A live shrimp under a popping cork over the grass covers you early. Fish the outgoing from the bar, not from in the cuts - that falling water moves hard through them.

A full week of S to SE at 195 to 203 degrees keeps green water feeding through the throat, and the drop from 13 kt to 9 kt overnight lets it settle. The pass itself will be sandy green; the shorelines taking the SE fetch keep a fishable working color.

Falling tide pulls bait out of the marsh drains and the reds line up at the mouths - a live mullet on a light Carolina rig or a spoon swung through the outflow. Flounder set up in the same spots; give them a 3/8 oz jighead crawled slow across the lip.

Clean end to the week. SSE at 6 to 9 kt is the right direction at the right speed, sun is out, rain odds are down to 16 percent. Water rises from the 3:17 AM low all the way to the 10:31 AM high, so the whole low-light stretch has water moving into the pass, then it dumps 0.76 ft to the 3:36 PM low. Light wind and clean green water means full lure control and a topwater bite at dawn - lures get the edge. Get it done early, because the air hits 92 F by 2 PM.

First light, Super Spook Jr in bone over the bar with the incoming pushing across it, then chrome/black once the sun is up and the glare comes on. Behind the topwater, a 1/8 oz jighead and a Down South Super Model in morning glory or Texas Roach - natural colors, long casts, light presentation, because in clear green they inspect it. A MirrOdine XL suspended over the drop-off is the cleanup bait for the biggest fish in the pass.

Live croaker free-lined on a 3/0 kahle down the deep side of the bar once the sun gets over the trees - 91 to 92 F air over 89 F water drives the good trout deep by late morning, and croaker is the only thing that reliably pulls them off bottom. Live shrimp under a cork on the grass edges before that. Fish it from the bar with the incoming carrying the bait to them; stay well off the channel.

A solid week of S and SE flow at moderate speed with no north or west in it leaves this the second cleanest day of the stretch. The throat runs clear green, it goes sandy where the incoming rolls over the bars, and even the Christmas Bay side should have cleaned up by now.

Long clean incoming and bright sun is sight-casting light - reds on the sand with a gold spoon or a weightless Sea Shad. Flounder are stacking at the gut mouths for the fall run; work a 1/4 oz jighead or a finger mullet slow through the cuts on the afternoon fall.