Christmas Bay, TX

Two days of soft SE built decent water, but the hourly flips NW then N at 4 kt through the morning - too weak to blow the pass out, plenty to knock the color off the bay shoreline and kill the sea breeze rip. Tide is the best thing going: one uninterrupted fall from the 1.06 ft high at 9:50 AM all the way to -0.02 ft at 9:41 PM, and the 8:21 to 10:21 AM major sits right on the turn. Storms are the deal breaker at 55 percent from 8 AM on. Lures work early, but with 88F water and a stained bay side I lean bait once the sun is up.

First light while it is still glassy, walk a bone Super Spook Jr across the shallow bars on the Gulf side - slow cadence, long pauses. Once the sun cracks the horizon go under it with a 1/8 oz jighead and a Down South Super Model in Chicken on a Chain along the drop-off edge. On the stained bay side switch to a dark loud profile, plum/chartreuse or morning glory on a 1/4 oz head, and grind it slow on the bottom. Get off the water when the 55 percent storm chance shows up.

Live shrimp under a rattling cork worked over the grass and shell on the Christmas Bay side is the play once the water dirties. With 88F water, a live croaker free-lined on a 3/0 kahle down the deeper edge of the guts will out-fish anything artificial after about 9 AM. Fish from the bar, not toward the channel.

The 48-hour SE mean at 138 degrees and 6.1 kt has kept Gulf water leaning into the pass, so the throat and the beachfront bars hold sandy green. The overnight NW and N shift pulls bay water down the shoreline, so expect a color change and fish the clean side of it.

Reds will run the same falling tide - gold spoon or a cut mullet chunk on a fish finder rig at the mouths of the drains. Flounder are stacking on the sand-to-mud transitions, so drag a Gulp on a 1/4 oz head slow if the trout bite dies.

West wind at 4 kt is a nothing wind - it will not blow this system out, but it also stops feeding new green water in, so the pass just holds what SE gave it. Tide is strong again with a single long fall from the 1.03 ft high at 9:15 AM to -0.01 ft at 10:45 PM, and the 9:21 to 11:21 AM major overlaps the first hours of that drop. Slick calm and 88F water means the bite is a dawn deal and then a slow deep grind, which is why lures and bait score about even.

Dead calm and clean water means downsize and go natural. Start with a MirrOdine XL in a chrome or bone pattern twitched over the first bar, then move to a 1/8 oz jighead and a Bass Assassin Sea Shad in Opening Night or Texas Roach fished on a slow swim along the drop. Long casts, light line, do not stand on the bar you are fishing. If the sun gets high, go to 3/8 oz and work the deeper cuts.

Free-lined live shrimp on a 1/0 circle drifted with the fall along the sandbar edge is deadly on a slick morning. Once it warms past mid-morning switch to a live croaker on a 1/4 oz slip sinker in the deeper water off the bar - that is the 88F water answer.

With the 24-hour mean only 4.7 kt out of the SE there is almost no wind stirring sediment, so the water lays down and clears through the day. The bay side stays a shade dirtier where the west breeze pushes off the marsh bank.

Sight-casting reds is realistic in slick clean water - look for pushes on the sand flats and lead them with a small spoon. Flounder will be sitting on the drains as the tide falls all afternoon; live mud minnow or finger mullet on a Carolina rig.

SW at 4 kt early then SE at 9 kt by noon - the afternoon shift is the good direction and it will keep the throat clean. The tide is busier than it is strong: a 0.98 ft high at 9:22 AM, a shallow 0.37 ft low at 11:23 AM, back to 0.99 ft at 5:32 PM. Water is moving most of the day, but no single swing has real punch. Lures are workable all day at these wind speeds, so this is a genuine coin flip on method.

Fish the last of the incoming into the 9:22 AM high with a topwater at gray light - MirrOlure She Dog in chrome/black over the bars, worked with pauses. Follow it down with a Lil John on a 1/8 oz head in morning glory or Opening Night on the color change. When the 10:17 AM to 12:17 PM major hits the falling water, go heavier - 3/8 oz jighead, plum/chartreuse tail bounced on the bottom of the guts.

Live shrimp under a popping cork drifted with the afternoon SE breeze along the windward bar is the easy money on a day like this. For the bigger fish, live croaker on a fish finder rig fished in the deeper water off the drop during the 10:17 AM major - at 88F the sulky ones will not chase a plastic.

The 138-degree 48-hour SE mean plus a fresh SE sea breeze after lunch keeps pushing Gulf water in, so the beachfront and throat firm up to a salty green. Back in the bay it stays a shade sandier where the morning SW pushed off the shoreline.

The second high at 5:32 PM sets up a good evening red bite in the back guts - gold spoon or a live finger mullet under a cork. Flounder are on the falling water at the drain mouths late morning.

Cleanest water of the early week - SE and E at 4 to 9 kt all day, straight out of the direction that feeds green water into the pass, and calm enough for full lure control. Tide is decent with a 0.93 ft high at 9:37 AM and a long build back to 0.98 ft at 7:13 PM. The knock is a 60 percent thunderstorm chance from 8 AM through noon that sits right on top of the best water. Get in early, get out when it darkens.

Clean water and low light is the topwater window - bone Super Spook Jr or a She Dog in chrome/black over the first bar until the sun is up. Then go translucent and natural: Down South Super Model in Opening Night or a Sea Shad in Texas Roach on a 1/8 oz head, slow swim through the guts. Keep colors subtle, this water does not need loud. If it clouds over ahead of the storms, bump to 1/4 oz and cover more water.

Free-lined live shrimp on a light circle hook in the clean throat water, drifted with the current across the drop. Once the 11:09 AM major hits and the water is over 85F, put a live croaker on the bottom in the deeper cut - that is the pattern that beats artificials by a mile in this heat.

Four straight days of SE flow off a 138-degree 48-hour mean has the throat as clean as it gets this week. Bay side lags a shade behind but is still fishable green, and any morning thunderstorm runoff will dirty the back drains first.

Reds will be pushing the flats on the long afternoon build into the 7:13 PM high - weedless spoon or a live mullet under a cork. Flounder around the drains on the 11:50 AM low.

This is the one. Five days of SE feed plus S wind at 4 to 9 kt gives the cleanest water of the stretch, and the tide runs from the 0.06 ft low at 12:32 AM straight up to the 0.9 ft high at 9:54 AM, so water is moving hard through first light. New moon puts real push behind it. Wind stays under 10 kt so lure control is perfect, and that is why I give artificials the edge over bait for the first three hours.

Be on the water before 6:30. Bone Super Spook Jr walked over the shallow bar in the dark and through sunrise, and do not set the hook until you feel weight. When the sun gets up, drop to a MirrOdine XL in a natural mullet or chrome pattern along the drop-off, then finish on a 1/8 oz jighead with a Down South Super Model in Opening Night or Texas Roach - translucent, this water is clear. Fish the sand, stay off the channel side.

Live shrimp free-lined or under a cork on the incoming works from dark until the high. After the 9:54 AM high, with 88F water, live croaker on a Carolina rig in the deeper guts is the better bet than anything you throw - the big fish go deep and sulky by mid-morning in this heat.

The sustained S and SE flow measured all week - 138 degrees at 6.1 kt over 48 hours - has Gulf water in the pass and no wind speed anywhere to muddy it. Even the bay side should show a workable sandy green today.

Best red day of the week too - the long incoming pushes them onto the flats, throw a gold spoon or a Sea Shad on 1/8 oz. Flounder on the 12:32 PM fall at the drain mouths, Gulp on a slow drag.

Dry, light and new moon - only a 6 to 14 percent rain chance and SW at 4 kt going S and SSE under 10 kt. Tide climbs from the 0.12 ft low at 1:17 AM to the 0.87 ft high at 10:11 AM, so you have moving water through the whole morning, and the 7:01 to 8:01 AM minor lands right on the 7:04 AM sunrise. That solunar-on-sunrise-on-incoming stack is the best overlap of the seven days. Sub-10 kt wind means full lure control, so throw artificials early and only switch when the heat says to.

Start with topwater in the low light - She Dog in chrome/black or a bone Spook Jr over the bar, keeping it in the moving water. Ride the 7:01 to 8:01 AM minor hard, that is your best hour of the week. After that go subsurface with a Lil John or Sea Shad in Chicken on a Chain on a 1/8 oz head along the drop, and bump to 3/8 oz once you need to hold bottom in the current.

Live shrimp under a popping cork worked over the shell and grass on the incoming, right through the 10:11 AM high. Once the sun is high and the water is 84 plus, free-line a live croaker or a piggy perch on the deeper edge of the gut with just enough weight to hold - the heat pattern is real and it beats plastic after mid-morning.

A short overnight SW breeze at 4 kt takes a little edge off the bay shoreline, but the week-long SE mean of 138 degrees keeps the throat and beachfront a clean salty green. Fish the color change where the two meet.

Reds will be up on the flats on the incoming - weedless gold spoon or a live mullet under a cork at the drain mouths. Flounder pick up on the 1:17 PM fall.

Good water, weaker week. SE builds to 10 to 12 kt through the afternoon which is the right direction and still soft enough to drift plastics, but the tide is the flattest of the seven days - 0.18 ft at 1:58 AM up to only 0.86 ft at 10:26 AM. That is real movement but not much of it, and 91F air by mid-afternoon on 88F water shuts the artificial bite down hard. Fish the morning and go home.

Topwater at first light over the bars - bone Spook Jr, and slow it down since the tide is not pushing hard. The 8:01 to 9:01 AM minor on the last of the incoming is your window, work a Down South Super Model in Opening Night or morning glory on a 1/8 oz head right through it. When the SE builds after noon, drift the windward edge with a Sea Shad on 1/4 oz and let the breeze do the work.

Popping cork and live shrimp drifted with the building SE breeze along the windward bar is the highest-percentage way to fish this day. In 88F water the afternoon belongs to live croaker fished on a light Carolina rig in the deepest water you can safely reach from the sand.

A week of SE off the 138-degree 48-hour mean keeps the Gulf side clean, and the freshening SE at 10 kt will keep feeding it. The building afternoon breeze will put a little stain on the windward bay shoreline.

Reds will hold in the guts on the slow morning incoming - cut mullet on a fish finder rig or a spoon. Flounder on the long 2:03 PM fall at the drains, live mud minnow on the bottom.