SpeckCast

· out of date — check conditions yourself

Christmas Bay, TX

29.0417° N, 95.1750° W 86.7°F water Model-written

Christmas Bay tide station · Shallow seagrass back bay behind Follets Island, reached from West Bay. Two to three feet over most of it, so wind speed muddies it far faster than wind direction cleans it.

The 48-hour setup

Buoy 42035 has been blowing out of the southeast for two solid days - the 48-hour mean is SSE at 147 deg, 7.3 kt, and the last 24 hours ran SE at 129 deg, 5.7 kt with a top gust of 17.5. That is exactly the direction that builds green water at San Luis Pass, just gentle about it. Pressure is flat and high at 1014.9 hPa, the coastal station at LUIT2 is reading ESE 7 kt, and the water is 86.7 F. Nothing out of the north or west has touched this system with any speed, so the bay never got stirred - sandy green in the throat, only a light stain in the back.

  • Buoy 42035: 48-hour vector-mean wind SSE (147 deg) at 7.3 kt; 24-hour mean SE at 5.7 kt. Peak gust in the last 48 hours: 17.5 kt.
  • LUIT2 latest: ESE at 7 kt, gusting 8.9 kt. Pressure 1014.4 hPa. Water temp 86.7 F.

The bottom line

Saturday, September 5 is the day - be in the water by 6:45 and fish the 7:00 - 10:30 AM window while the major, sunrise and the top of that 1.06 ft tide stack up on each other. Thursday the 10th is a close second on the new moon, with a long overnight rise into a 9:54 AM high. Everything in between is fishable, but pick your mornings and be off the sand before the afternoon storms build.

Best day SATURDAY September 5 PERFECT DAY 92 7:00 - 10:30 AM

The week

-0.02 ft – 1.06 ft · 7 days

Day by day

SATURDAY

September 5 · Day 1 of 7

PERFECT DAY 92/100

Best window 7:00 - 10:30 AM

Sandy Green sandy green in the throat, stained on the bay side

Lure 93 Bait 91

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 93, bait 91) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 1.08 ft · strong · peak 0.1 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Saturday, September 5 High 9:12 AM - 1.06 ft | Low 8:30 PM - -0.02 ft. 10 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 7:00 - 10:30 AM. H 1.06 9:12 AM L -0.02 8:30 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

S

S

SW

W

N

N

SE

SE

S

S

S

S
Wind kt
944444449944
Tide ft
0.30.50.70.91.01.10.90.70.30.1-0.00.0

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Saturday, September 5
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.26 62 No
1 AM 0.37 64 No
2 AM 0.49 64 No
3 AM 0.61 63 No
4 AM 0.73 61 No
5 AM 0.84 57 No
6 AM 0.93 68 No
7 AM 1 76 Yes
8 AM 1.04 69 Yes
9 AM 1.06 64 Yes
10 AM 1.05 70 Yes
11 AM 1 76 Yes
12 PM 0.9 74 No
1 PM 0.79 79 No
2 PM 0.65 81 No
3 PM 0.5 81 No
4 PM 0.35 80 No
5 PM 0.21 75 No
6 PM 0.1 70 No
7 PM 0.02 74 Yes
8 PM -0.02 64 Yes
9 PM -0.02 55 Yes
10 PM 0.01 44 Yes
11 PM 0.07 44 Yes
  • Clarity 82
  • Tide 97
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 94
Tide
High 9:12 AM (1.06) -> Low 8:30 PM (-0.02)
Range
1.08 ft · strong · peak 0.1 ft/hr
Wind
N 4-9 kt48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Partly Cloudy · 86°F · 44% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 34%
Sun
7:01 AM → 7:38 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 7:19 AM - 9:19 AM 117 Major - moon overhead, on max tidal flow
  • 9:12 AM - 11:42 AM 82 First of the outgoing off the 9:12 AM high
  • 7:44 PM - 9:44 PM 95 Major - moon underfoot
  • 8:30 PM - 11:00 PM 8 First of the incoming off the 8:30 PM low
Why this rating

Two days of SSE at 7.3 kt put green water in the throat, and Saturday's early northerly is only 4 kt - that does not blow this system out. The 1.06 ft high at 9:12 AM feeds an eleven hour fall to a minus low at 8:30 PM, and the 7:19 - 9:19 AM major lands on sunrise with the water still moving. Wind never breaks 9 kt so lure control is easy, which is the EITHER call - plastics early, live croaker once the sun is up on 86.7 F water. Do not wade toward the channel on that fall.

Speckled trout tactic

Start on top at 6:45 with a Super Spook Jr in bone over the sand bars while the tide is still topping out - slow, with long pauses. Once the fall gets going around 9:30, go to a Down South Super Model on a 1/8 oz jighead in Chicken on a Chain and drift the sandy green edges. If they short-strike, drop to a Bass Assassin Sea Shad in Texas Roach on the same head.

Live bait tactic

Live shrimp under a popping cork on an 18 to 24 inch leader, drifted over the sand and grass on the bay side while the tide falls. Once the sun is up on 86.7 F water, switch to a live croaker on a 3/0 kahle, free-lined into the guts - that bait beats everything else in September heat.

Water clarity read

The 48-hour SSE mean at 7.3 kt has been feeding Gulf water in, so the throat and the beachfront side are carrying sandy green. The 4 kt northerly at daylight is too light to matter, but the back of Christmas Bay still holds a stain.

Reds & flounder

Redfish will be up on the bay-side flats on that long fall; a gold spoon or a live mullet on a fish-finder rig where the guts drain will get them. Flounder are starting to stage for the fall run, so drag a Gulp shrimp on a 1/4 oz head across the drain mouths on the way out.

SUNDAY

September 6 · Day 2 of 7

WORTH A TRIP 87/100

Best window 7:15 - 10:30 AM

Sandy Green green pushing the gulf side, milky where the runoff drains

Lure 89 Bait 85

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 89, bait 85) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 1.08 ft · strong · peak 0.09 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Sunday, September 6 High 9:50 AM - 1.06 ft | Low 9:41 PM - -0.02 ft. 10 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 7:15 - 10:30 AM. H 1.06 9:50 AM L -0.02 9:41 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

S

S

SW

NW

NW

SE

SE

SE

SE

S

S

S
Wind kt
444444449994
Tide ft
0.10.40.60.91.01.11.00.80.50.20.0-0.0

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Sunday, September 6
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.15 61 No
1 AM 0.25 64 No
2 AM 0.37 66 No
3 AM 0.5 67 No
4 AM 0.62 65 No
5 AM 0.75 62 No
6 AM 0.86 74 No
7 AM 0.94 68 No
8 AM 1.01 74 Yes
9 AM 1.05 63 Yes
10 AM 1.06 67 Yes
11 AM 1.04 70 Yes
12 PM 0.98 78 Yes
1 PM 0.88 75 No
2 PM 0.76 79 No
3 PM 0.63 81 No
4 PM 0.48 88 Yes
5 PM 0.34 85 Yes
6 PM 0.22 78 No
7 PM 0.11 71 No
8 PM 0.03 59 Yes
9 PM -0.02 34 Yes
10 PM -0.02 40 Yes
11 PM 0.01 43 No
  • Clarity 81
  • Tide 96
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 73
Tide
High 9:50 AM (1.06) -> Low 9:41 PM (-0.02)
Range
1.08 ft · strong · peak 0.09 ft/hr
Wind
NW 4-9 kt48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Chance Rain Showers · 86°F · 61% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 24%
Sun
7:01 AM → 7:36 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 8:21 AM - 10:21 AM 95 Major - moon overhead
  • 9:50 AM - 12:20 PM 82 First of the outgoing off the 9:50 AM high
  • 4:10 PM - 5:10 PM 60 Minor - moonset
  • 8:46 PM - 10:46 PM 18 Major - moon underfoot
Why this rating

Same clean SSE history behind it and the tide is nearly as good - 1.06 ft high at 9:50 AM into a minus low at 9:41 PM, with the major from 8:21 to 10:21 AM. What knocks it down is the sky: 52 percent rain by 8 AM and thunderstorms likely 61 percent through the afternoon, plus a 4 kt NW at daylight and fresh runoff putting colour in the bay side. Wind is nothing, so lures work fine early, but bait holds up better once it stains - fish the first three hours and get off the sand when it builds.

Speckled trout tactic

MirrOlure She Dog in bone/chrome the first hour off the beachfront while it is still quiet. When the rain colours it up, go dark and loud - Bass Assassin Sea Shad in Opening Night on a 1/4 oz jighead, or plum/chartreuse Down South, bumped along the drop with a hard twitch so they can find it. Leave the natural translucents in the box today, they disappear in stained water.

Live bait tactic

Stained water is bait weather. Live shrimp under a loud popping cork over the bay-side sand, popped hard every few seconds so they can hear it, or a finger mullet free-lined on a 4/0 circle along the drop. Live croaker on a light Carolina rig with a 1/4 oz slip sinker if you want the better fish.

Water clarity read

SE-driven green still holds on the Gulf side, but a 4 kt NW at daylight and 60 percent rain chances put fresh colour in the bay-side drains. Gulf side stays sandy green, back side goes off as the day runs.

Reds & flounder

Reds do not care about stained water - a chunk of mullet or a cracked crab on the bottom near the drains will find them. Flounder on the sand points while the tide is pulling.

MONDAY

September 7 · Day 3 of 7

WORTH A TRIP 86/100

Best window 8:30 - 11:30 AM

Sandy / Salty Green sandy green through the throat, light stain up in the bay

Lure 88 Bait 82

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 88, bait 82) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 1.04 ft · moderate · peak 0.08 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Monday, September 7 High 9:15 AM - 1.03 ft | Low 10:45 PM - -0.01 ft. 8 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 8:30 - 11:30 AM. H 1.03 9:15 AM L -0.01 10:45 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

S

S

SW

SW

SW

S

SE

SE

SE

S

S

S
Wind kt
444444499999
Tide ft
0.10.30.60.81.01.00.90.70.50.30.10.0

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Monday, September 7
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.08 60 No
1 AM 0.18 65 No
2 AM 0.3 69 No
3 AM 0.44 71 No
4 AM 0.58 69 No
5 AM 0.72 65 No
6 AM 0.84 76 No
7 AM 0.93 68 No
8 AM 1 59 No
9 AM 1.03 60 Yes
10 AM 1.02 66 Yes
11 AM 0.99 70 Yes
12 PM 0.93 66 No
1 PM 0.84 71 No
2 PM 0.74 74 No
3 PM 0.63 75 No
4 PM 0.51 83 Yes
5 PM 0.39 81 Yes
6 PM 0.28 77 No
7 PM 0.18 72 No
8 PM 0.09 67 No
9 PM 0.03 41 Yes
10 PM 0 34 Yes
11 PM -0.01 34 Yes
  • Clarity 87
  • Tide 93
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 63
Tide
High 9:15 AM (1.03) -> Low 10:45 PM (-0.01)
Range
1.04 ft · moderate · peak 0.08 ft/hr
Wind
SW 4-9 kt48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Mostly Clear · 87°F · 25% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 15%
Sun
7:02 AM → 7:35 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 9:15 AM - 11:45 AM 82 First of the outgoing off the 9:15 AM high
  • 9:21 AM - 11:21 AM 80 Major - moon overhead
  • 4:58 PM - 5:58 PM 60 Minor - moonset
  • 9:46 PM - 11:46 PM 18 Major - moon underfoot
Why this rating

Wind swings SW but only at 4 kt, which is far too weak to muddy this system - clarity actually improves as the SE history keeps working. The 1.03 ft high at 9:15 AM starts a long clean fall to a minus low at 10:45 PM, and the major runs 9:21 - 11:21 AM right on top of it. Workable lure water all day under 9 kt, so EITHER stands; the only reason it is not a perfect day is the solunar overlap comes after the low light is gone.

Speckled trout tactic

Bone Super Spook Jr through the first hour of the fall, then a Lil John in Texas Roach on a 1/8 oz head dragged slow along the reef edges and shell. Sandy salty green wants natural colours - Texas Roach, morning glory, Chicken on a Chain. Keep the head light and let the current do the work; heavier than 1/4 oz and you will hang shell all morning.

Live bait tactic

Live croaker on a Carolina rig with a 1/4 oz slip sinker and a 20 inch leader, worked slow along the reef edge on the fall. Piggy perch under a cork is the backup if the croaker are hard to buy. Put it on the up-current side of the shell and let it swim down.

Water clarity read

Three more days with no hard N or W push and the pass keeps cleaning up. SW at 4 kt is nothing - sandy salty green through the throat, with only a light stain back in the coves.

Reds & flounder

Good redfish day along the shoreline shell on the falling water - weedless gold spoon or a Texas-rigged plastic. Flounder are sitting on the drain mouths at the back of the bay.

TUESDAY

September 8 · Day 4 of 7

WORTH A TRIP 89/100

Best window 5:30 - 8:00 PM

Sandy / Salty Green clean sandy green on the beachfront, stained in the coves

Lure 91 Bait 85

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 91, bait 85) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 0.97 ft · moderate · peak 0.3 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Tuesday, September 8 High 9:22 AM - 0.98 ft | Low 11:23 AM - 0.37 ft | High 5:32 PM - 0.99 ft | Low 11:42 PM - 0.02 ft. 8 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 5:30 - 8:00 PM. H 0.98 9:22 AM L 0.37 11:23 AM H 0.99 5:32 PM L 0.02 11:42 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

S

S

SW

SW

SW

S

SE

SE

SE

SE

SE

SE
Wind kt
944444499999
Tide ft
0.00.20.50.80.90.80.40.60.91.00.70.2

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Tuesday, September 8
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.02 42 No
1 AM 0.1 44 No
2 AM 0.2 46 No
3 AM 0.33 48 No
4 AM 0.48 48 No
5 AM 0.62 47 No
6 AM 0.76 61 No
7 AM 0.86 58 No
8 AM 0.94 55 No
9 AM 0.98 69 Yes
10 AM 0.84 93 Yes
11 AM 0.42 59 Yes
12 PM 0.38 62 Yes
1 PM 0.47 57 No
2 PM 0.61 59 No
3 PM 0.76 57 No
4 PM 0.9 55 No
5 PM 0.98 58 Yes
6 PM 0.97 71 Yes
7 PM 0.86 78 Yes
8 PM 0.65 82 Yes
9 PM 0.41 54 No
10 PM 0.19 47 No
11 PM 0.05 47 No
  • Clarity 87
  • Tide 100
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 63
Tide
High 9:22 AM (0.98) -> Low 11:23 AM (0.37) -> High 5:32 PM (0.99) -> Low 11:42 PM (0.02)
Range
0.97 ft · moderate · peak 0.3 ft/hr
Wind
S ~4 kt -> **SE 9 kt** late48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Mostly Clear · 87°F · 26% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 8%
Sun
7:02 AM → 7:34 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 9:22 AM - 11:52 AM 82 First of the outgoing off the 9:22 AM high
  • 10:17 AM - 12:17 PM 80 Major - moon overhead
  • 5:32 PM - 8:02 PM 82 First of the outgoing off the 5:32 PM high
  • 5:39 PM - 6:39 PM 75 Minor - moonset
Why this rating

Four tides means four turns and none of them big - 0.98 ft at 9:22 AM, a shallow 0.37 low at 11:23 AM, back to 0.99 at 5:32 PM, then a real fall to 0.02 by 11:42 PM. That evening fall is the only sustained movement on the board, so this is an afternoon trip, not a dawn one. SE 4-9 kt keeps lures honest and the water clean, which holds the EITHER call, but 86.7 F water means the middle of the day belongs to croaker.

Speckled trout tactic

Start at 5:30 with a MirrOdine XL in chrome/chartreuse, twitch-twitch-pause across the bars as the tide starts down. Go to a Down South Super Model in plum/chartreuse on a 1/4 oz jighead when the light drops. Last hour before the 7:34 sunset, back on top with a chrome/black Spook Jr - that falling water at dark is the whole day.

Live bait tactic

Finger mullet under a popping cork on the evening fall, drifted off the bars where the water is pulling. Live shrimp works the same window if mullet are scarce. Through the hot part of the afternoon before the 5:32 high, free-line a live croaker on a 3/0 kahle in the guts.

Water clarity read

Wind has stayed light and off the south quarter, so the beachfront and the throat are clean sandy green. The pockets and coves on the bay side still carry colour from the daily storms.

Reds & flounder

That evening fall pushes bait out of the marsh and the reds will be stacked on the drains waiting on it. Flounder are picking up as September runs - a slow-dragged Gulp on the sand edges near the drains is the deal.

WEDNESDAY

September 9 · Day 5 of 7

WORTH A TRIP 89/100

Best window 6:45 - 9:45 AM

Clear Green green water to the bars, only a soft stain on the bay side

Lure 91 Bait 85

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 91, bait 85) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 0.66 ft · soft · peak 0.28 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Wednesday, September 9 High 9:37 AM - 0.93 ft | Low 11:50 AM - 0.32 ft | High 7:13 PM - 0.98 ft. 9 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 6:45 - 9:45 AM. H 0.93 9:37 AM L 0.32 11:50 AM H 0.98 7:13 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

SE

S

S

S

S

SE

SE

SE

SE

SE

SE

SE
Wind kt
944444999999
Tide ft
0.00.10.40.70.90.90.30.50.70.90.90.5

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Wednesday, September 9
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.02 39 No
1 AM 0.06 43 No
2 AM 0.13 46 No
3 AM 0.24 48 No
4 AM 0.38 49 No
5 AM 0.52 49 No
6 AM 0.66 63 No
7 AM 0.78 60 No
8 AM 0.87 57 No
9 AM 0.92 61 Yes
10 AM 0.89 93 Yes
11 AM 0.51 75 Yes
12 PM 0.32 61 Yes
1 PM 0.36 66 Yes
2 PM 0.45 58 No
3 PM 0.58 59 No
4 PM 0.72 60 No
5 PM 0.84 57 No
6 PM 0.94 64 Yes
7 PM 0.98 69 Yes
8 PM 0.93 82 Yes
9 PM 0.75 73 Yes
10 PM 0.49 59 No
11 PM 0.24 59 No
  • Clarity 90
  • Tide 95
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 71
Tide
High 9:37 AM (0.93) -> Low 11:50 AM (0.32) -> High 7:13 PM (0.98)
Range
0.66 ft · soft · peak 0.28 ft/hr
Wind
S 4-9 kt48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Partly Cloudy · 87°F · 32% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 3%
Sun
7:03 AM → 7:33 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 9:37 AM - 12:07 PM 82 First of the outgoing off the 9:37 AM high
  • 11:09 AM - 1:09 PM 92 Major - moon overhead, on max tidal flow
  • 6:15 PM - 7:15 PM 75 Minor - moonset
  • 7:13 PM - 9:43 PM 100 First of the outgoing off the 7:13 PM high
Why this rating

Best clarity of the week so far - five straight days with no hard N or W wind and the SE flow running the beachfront clean. First light sits on the last of the rise into a 0.93 ft high at 9:37 AM, and that is the good part; after the 11:50 AM low the water goes lazy, and the 11:09 AM - 1:09 PM major overlaps the deadest stretch of tide. Lures are easy in 4-9 kt, but plan on bait once the sun tops out on 86.7 F water.

Speckled trout tactic

Clean water means translucent and natural. Lil John in morning glory on a 1/8 oz jighead through the incoming, and a MirrOlure She Dog in bone at first light over the shallow sand. Long casts, light leader, and stay off them - in green water at 4 kt they spook easy. When the tide dies at 11:50, either quit or go to a 3/8 oz head and a Sea Shad in Texas Roach on the deeper edges.

Live bait tactic

Live shrimp under a popping cork on the incoming from first light to that 9:37 high, 18 inch leader, drifted along the sandy green edges. Switch to a free-lined live croaker on a 3/0 kahle once the water hits its warmest in the afternoon - at 86.7 F that is the whole game.

Water clarity read

Five days of S and SE under 10 kt with no north wind at all - this is about as clean as the pass gets in September. Green water right up to the bars, with just a soft stain on the far bay side.

Reds & flounder

Reds up on the flats early with the incoming, and sight-casting is realistic in this clarity. Flounder are holding on the sand-to-mud transitions.

THURSDAY

September 10 · Day 6 of 7

PERFECT DAY 91/100

Best window 6:45 - 10:15 AM

Clear Green clear green front to back, faint stain in the back drains

Lure 93 Bait 88

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 93, bait 88) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 0.91 ft · moderate · peak 0.24 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Thursday, September 10 Low 12:32 AM - 0.06 ft | High 9:54 AM - 0.9 ft | Low 12:32 PM - 0.27 ft | High 8:38 PM - 0.97 ft. 7 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 6:45 - 10:15 AM. L 0.06 12:32 AM H 0.9 9:54 AM L 0.27 12:32 PM H 0.97 8:38 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

S

S

S

S

S

S

S

SE

SE

S

S

S
Wind kt
944444499999
Tide ft
0.10.10.30.60.80.90.30.30.50.81.00.8

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Thursday, September 10
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.08 38 No
1 AM 0.06 40 No
2 AM 0.11 45 No
3 AM 0.2 48 No
4 AM 0.31 50 No
5 AM 0.45 50 No
6 AM 0.59 65 No
7 AM 0.71 63 No
8 AM 0.81 59 No
9 AM 0.88 60 Yes
10 AM 0.89 82 Yes
11 AM 0.66 92 Yes
12 PM 0.33 63 Yes
1 PM 0.28 63 Yes
2 PM 0.33 56 No
3 PM 0.42 59 No
4 PM 0.54 63 No
5 PM 0.68 62 No
6 PM 0.81 75 Yes
7 PM 0.91 70 Yes
8 PM 0.96 52 No
9 PM 0.96 52 No
10 PM 0.8 64 No
11 PM 0.53 64 No
  • Clarity 90
  • Tide 100
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 75
Tide
Low 12:32 AM (0.06) -> High 9:54 AM (0.9) -> Low 12:32 PM (0.27) -> High 8:38 PM (0.97)
Range
0.91 ft · moderate · peak 0.24 ft/hr
Wind
S 4-9 kt48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Partly Cloudy · 87°F · 23% rain
Moon
New Moon 0%
Sun
7:03 AM → 7:32 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 9:54 AM - 12:24 PM 82 First of the outgoing off the 9:54 AM high
  • 11:57 AM - 1:57 PM 92 Major - moon overhead, on max tidal flow
  • 6:47 PM - 7:47 PM 97 Minor - moonset, on max tidal flow
  • 11:32 PM - 1:32 AM 40 Major - moon underfoot, on max tidal flow
Why this rating

New moon, the cleanest water of the stretch, and the strongest tide on the board - a long overnight rise from 0.06 ft at 12:32 AM into a 0.9 ft high at 9:54 AM, so the water is pulling hard at the 7:03 sunrise with the 5:59 - 6:59 AM minor on the front of it. S wind at 4-9 kt is the direction that keeps this pass green, so clarity and lure control are both there. Straight EITHER - plastics and topwater to about 10 AM, croaker after that on 86.7 F water.

Speckled trout tactic

Best lure morning of the week. Bone Super Spook Jr from 6:45 until they quit blowing up on it, then a Down South Super Model in Chicken on a Chain on a 1/8 oz head worked with the incoming across the bars. If the current stiffens in the throat, step up to a 3/8 oz head to hold bottom. Natural colours only in clear green - Texas Roach and morning glory are the other two.

Live bait tactic

Free-lined live croaker on a 3/0 kahle is the play on that long rise - no weight, let it swim into the guts. Live shrimp under a popping cork over the bars if you want to cover water and catch numbers. Piggy perch on a Carolina rig for the bigger bay-side fish late in the morning.

Water clarity read

Sustained S wind plus a new moon tide keeps pulling Gulf water through the cut, and it shows - clear green front to back. Only the very back drains still hold any colour.

Reds & flounder

New moon tide moves bait hard, so look for reds schooling on the bay-side flats through the morning rise. Flounder on the guts and drain mouths, dragged slow.

FRIDAY

September 11 · Day 7 of 7

WORTH A TRIP 90/100

Best window 7:00 - 10:30 AM

Sandy / Salty Green sandy green in the current, warm and slick on the flats

Lure 92 Bait 87

Either

Nothing separates them today (lure 92, bait 87) - fish whichever you enjoy more.

Cork or free-line, no problem

Tide (ft) & Wind (kt) by hour 0.85 ft · moderate · peak 0.21 ft/hr
Hourly tide for Friday, September 11 Low 1:17 AM - 0.12 ft | High 10:11 AM - 0.87 ft | Low 1:17 PM - 0.22 ft | High 9:54 PM - 0.97 ft. 9 of 24 hours score as fishable. Best window 7:00 - 10:30 AM. L 0.12 1:17 AM H 0.87 10:11 AM L 0.22 1:17 PM H 0.97 9:54 PM 12a 6a 12p 6p
Wind dir

S

SSW

SSW

SW

WSW

SW

SSE

SSE

SSE

SSE

SSE

S
Wind kt
9764337109987
Tide ft
0.30.10.30.50.80.90.50.20.40.70.91.0

prime good fair slow

Hourly tide and fishing score for Friday, September 11
HourTide (ft)ScoreFishable
12 AM 0.27 52 No
1 AM 0.12 36 No
2 AM 0.13 42 No
3 AM 0.18 46 No
4 AM 0.28 49 No
5 AM 0.4 51 No
6 AM 0.53 66 No
7 AM 0.66 77 Yes
8 AM 0.76 73 Yes
9 AM 0.84 52 No
10 AM 0.87 70 Yes
11 AM 0.76 90 Yes
12 PM 0.46 83 Yes
1 PM 0.23 57 Yes
2 PM 0.23 64 Yes
3 PM 0.29 57 No
4 PM 0.39 63 No
5 PM 0.51 64 No
6 PM 0.65 67 No
7 PM 0.78 76 Yes
8 PM 0.88 72 Yes
9 PM 0.95 38 No
10 PM 0.96 51 No
11 PM 0.83 51 No
  • Clarity 87
  • Tide 96
  • Wind 100
  • Solunar 80
Tide
Low 1:17 AM (0.12) -> High 10:11 AM (0.87) -> Low 1:17 PM (0.22) -> High 9:54 PM (0.97)
Range
0.85 ft · moderate · peak 0.21 ft/hr
Wind
SW 3-10 kt48-hr mean SSE 7.3 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.97 inHg, steady
Sky
Partly Cloudy · 93°F
Moon
New Moon 0%
Sun
7:04 AM → 7:30 PM

Best lure windows · score /100

  • 7:01 AM - 8:01 AM 97 Minor - moonrise, on max tidal flow
  • 10:11 AM - 12:41 PM 82 First of the outgoing off the 10:11 AM high
  • 12:43 PM - 2:43 PM 92 Major - moon overhead, on max tidal flow
  • 7:18 PM - 8:18 PM 97 Minor - moonset, on max tidal flow
Why this rating

New moon still holds and the tide is good - a 0.87 ft high at 10:11 AM with the 7:01 - 8:01 AM minor sitting on moonrise at first light. Two things pull it back: the morning wind goes SW to WSW at 3-4 kt, which is the wrong quarter even that light, and the air hits 93 F by 2 PM over water already at 86.7 F. Lure control is fine in that breeze, so EITHER stands early, but once the heat lands it is a croaker afternoon or nothing.

Speckled trout tactic

Get it done in the first three hours. Chrome/black Spook Jr right at 7:00 on the minor, then a Bass Assassin Sea Shad in Texas Roach on a 1/8 oz jighead through the last of the rise. Once the air is over 90 F and the tide quits at 1:17 PM, a 3/8 oz head with a Down South in Chicken on a Chain fished slow on the deeper edges is the only artificial worth throwing.

Live bait tactic

Live croaker on a Carolina rig with a 1/4 to 3/8 oz slip sinker, fished on the deeper edges once the heat sets in - 86.7 F water pushes trout down and croaker drags them back out. Early, live shrimp under a cork on the last of the rise into that 10:11 AM high does plenty.

Water clarity read

A light SW to WSW morning breeze puts a touch of sand back in it, but at 3-4 kt it cannot undo what a week of SE built. Sandy salty green in the moving water, slick and warm over the bay-side flats.

Reds & flounder

Reds early on the shoreline before the heat, then they shut down. Flounder are the better second option this late in the week - work the drains with a slow drag.

Have this in your inbox at 7 PM

Pick your spots and your days — Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or all three. One mail, no app.

Subscribe

Caught something? Add it to the catch log and it feeds back into the calibration.

What this forecast cannot tell you (3)
  • The NWS hourly forecast reaches about 6.5 days, which stops short of the end of this window. Wind, temperature and sky for Friday come from Open-Meteo alone, with no second model to check them against. Treat the last of the week as a trend, not a plan.
  • Wind is cross-checked against two independent models: the NWS gridpoint forecast for this spot, and Open-Meteo running gfs_seamless at 29.069916, -95.15971. Across the overlapping mornings the two agree to within 1.3 kt on average (worst 2.2 kt). Where they diverge, treat that day's wind as less certain.
  • Water clarity is inferred from measured 48-hour buoy wind history and forecast wind vectors. It is not visually confirmed - local webcams are video streams and cannot be read automatically. Check a cam before you load the truck.
Data sources (6)
Compare this forecast (1)
Earlier runs (5)

Issued Friday, September 4, 2026 at 1:35 PM CT