East Matagorda Bay, TX

Two days of SE wind at 138 degrees averaging 6.1 kt built usable water, and nothing in this forecast tears it up - the light NW/N swing at 5 kt around dawn is far too weak to dirty this system. The 8:55 AM high feeding a twelve-hour fall to the 8:41 PM low is the strongest single move on the board, and the 8:25 - 10:25 AM major sits on the front of it. Wind runs 4-13 kt so lure control is easy, which is why this grades EITHER with the artificial holding the edge; only the 89.6 F water argues bait back in after 10 AM.

Start at first light with a bone Super Spook Jr walked over the second bar while the tide is still stacking in. When the sun clears, get under it with a Down South Super Model on a 1/8 oz head in Chicken on a Chain, or a Lil John in Opening Night slow-rolled with the current down the drop. Water is sandy, not muddy, so stay natural and translucent. Once the fall gets rolling, step up to a 1/4 oz head to keep bottom contact and drift the windward edge.

Free-line a live croaker on a 3/0 kahle down the outside edge of the bar on the first two hours of the fall - no weight, a single split shot only if the current sweeps it. Live shrimp under a popping cork works the guts on the bay side. Once the water climbs back toward 90 by mid-morning the croaker will flat outfish anything plastic, because the better trout sulk on the bottom and only a croaker moves them.

The 48-hour SE mean at 6.1 kt has been pushing Gulf water in steadily but gently, so the throat and the Gulf-side bar run sandy green. The bay side behind the pass will be a touch dirtier where that dawn north wind wrinkles it, but at 5 kt that is gone by 9 AM.

Reds will push the sand pockets on the last of the incoming - gold spoon, or cut mullet on a fish-finder rig anywhere the current pinches. Flounder set up on the down-current side of the bar edges once that long fall gets going after noon. Fish from the beach side and stay well off the channel drop.

The SE history holds and the water keeps cleaning up, but the tide gives back a step - the 10:41 AM high shoves the best movement into the middle of the morning instead of first light. Wind is a token SW at 4-5 kt early, nowhere near enough to muddy this system. At 4-9 kt lure control is perfect so it stays EITHER with the plastic ahead, but you are fishing a rise into the heat rather than a long fall. Solid half-day, not a full one.

Topwater is live for the first hour - a MirrOlure She Dog in bone or chrome/black over the bar while it is still gray out. After that a Bass Assassin Sea Shad on a 1/8 oz jighead in Texas Roach or morning glory, cast up-current and swum back with the flow toward the 10:41 AM high. Clean water means small profile, natural color, long casts on 15 lb braid and a 20 lb leader. When the top quits, a MirrOdine XL twitched slow along the drop pulls the better fish.

Live shrimp under a rattling popping cork along the sand-to-grass edges on the bay side, popped hard every three seconds to call them up. A live croaker free-lined on a 3/0 is still the play for the bigger trout on the last of the rise. Finger mullet on a light Carolina rig covers you when hardheads start picking the shrimp apart.

Another 24 hours of S and SE flow on top of a 138 degree 48-hour mean keeps clean Gulf water feeding the throat. The bay side behind the pass stays a half-step stained where it never really flushes, so favor the Gulf-side bars.

Redfish will be up in shallow sand riding the incoming - a paddletail on a 1/8 oz head or a live mullet under a cork. Flounder sit on the lip of the guts and turn on after the tide flips in the evening.

Clarity peaks here - three straight days of S and SE at 4-9 kt off a 138 degree 48-hour mean is the exact recipe for green water in this pass. The tide is the soft spot: a slow all-morning rise to the 1:00 PM high, then a long steady fall to the 10:41 PM low. That evening fall stacked with the 5:41 - 6:41 PM minor and dying light is the whole day, and under 10 kt lure control is dead easy, so EITHER with the artificial nod. Skip the middle of the day - water near 90 F and high sun means they will not eat.

Evening fall, clean water, dying light - throw a bone Super Spook Jr or a She Dog across the current at the bar edge and let it swing as you walk it. Back it with a Down South Super Model in Texas Roach or plum/chartreuse on a 1/8 oz head, hopped down the slope with the flow. Clear water means a 20 lb fluorocarbon leader and long casts. If they blow up and miss, drop to a Lil John on a 1/8 oz head and let it fall on slack line right where he swirled.

Live croaker free-lined on a 3/0 kahle is the big-trout bait with water at 89.6 F, and the last two hours of light on a falling tide is when they take it. Put it on the down-current edge of the bar and let it swim. Live shrimp under a popping cork in the bay-side guts fills the box if you just want steady bites.

Sustained SE at 4-9 kt with no north component in three days has Gulf water pushed well inside the pass. You will see your boots on the Gulf-side bar; the far bay side is greener than it has been all week but still the dirtier of the two.

Reds run that evening fall hard - cut mullet on a fish-finder rig on the beach side, or a gold spoon worked along the sand. Flounder come alive on the last of the fall right at dark on the down-current sides of the guts.

Cleanest water of the week - four days of SE at 4-9 kt with zero north in it. The trouble is a 2:48 PM high with a 66 percent storm chance covering the entire morning, so the only useful movement lands in the last two hours of daylight. Lures work fine in that wind and EITHER stands, but understand you are buying a window, not a day. Worth the drive only if you can fish the evening.

Wait out the storms and start on the first of the fall behind the 2:48 PM high. Bone Super Spook Jr over the bar as the light drops, then a MirrOdine XL twitched along the drop where the current seams up. Fill in with a Lil John in Opening Night on a 1/8 oz head, dragged slow with the flow. Clear water and slick conditions call for a natural profile and a light 20 lb leader - do not throw anything loud or dark today.

Free-lined live croaker on a 3/0 kahle at the bar edge for the last of the light is the highest-percentage bait, with water still near 90 F. Live shrimp under a popping cork on the bay-side guts is the backup. If lightning is anywhere on the radar, sit it out - there is no cover on that sand.

Four days of unbroken SE flow at 138 degrees has this as clean as it gets here without a hard blow. Even the bay side has mostly caught up; only the back guts hold any tint.

Redfish will be working the sand pockets on the evening fall; cut mullet on the bottom or a live finger mullet under a cork. Flounder on the down-current lips as it drains toward the 11:33 PM low.

The water is beautiful and that is all this day has going for it. One tide event on the whole board, a 0.84 ft high at 4:07 PM, which means dead water all morning and no real fall in daylight. Stack that on 89.6 F water and 88 F air and you are casting at fish glued to the bottom with no current to feed them. Wind is not the issue and lures would be perfectly workable - you just cannot fish a tide that is not moving. Save the gas for Friday.

If you go anyway, go late and go small. Last hour of light only, a Lil John in Opening Night or a Down South Super Model in Texas Roach on a 1/8 oz head, worked dead slow on the deeper edge where the little bit of push off the 4:07 PM high still has some movement. Bone Super Spook Jr right at sunset is the only shot at a real fish. Expect a grind and be off the bar before dark.

This is the day live bait earns its keep, if you insist on going - a free-lined live croaker on a 3/0 kahle on the deepest edge you can safely reach, or live shrimp under a cork in the bay-side guts. Scent and sound are the only thing that will pull a fish with no current to help you. Fish the evening, not the middle of the day.

Five days of light S and SE off the 138 degree 48-hour mean leaves the pass as clean as it has been. Bay side and Gulf side look about the same today, which is the only good news on offer.

Reds are the better bet than trout today - cut mullet on a fish-finder rig on the beach side will still get run over. Flounder will be slow with the tide flat.

The new moon puts tide back on the board, though not much of it - the 5:23 AM high at 0.7 ft only bleeds down to 0.65 ft by 12:13 PM, which is a trickle over the bars. What saves the day is the timing: that soft fall runs straight through first light with the 7:04 - 8:04 AM minor sitting on it. Wind is light SW early then S at 9-11 kt, nowhere near enough to hurt clarity, so lures stay easy and it grades EITHER. Be there at dawn or do not bother going.

First light on a falling tide with a new moon - start with a bone Super Spook Jr or a chrome/black She Dog over the shallow bar, and cover water fast. When the sun gets up, switch to a Bass Assassin Sea Shad in morning glory or a Down South Super Model in Chicken on a Chain on a 1/8 oz head, fished on the down-current side of the guts where that weak fall still funnels. Movement is soft, so slow everything down and let the bait hang in the seam.

Live shrimp under a popping cork drifted with the outgoing along the bar edges is the highest-percentage rig with this little current. Free-lined live croaker on a 3/0 for the bigger fish through the first two hours after sunrise. Piggy perch under a cork is a good swap if the shrimp are getting shredded by pinfish.

The light SW component early is only 4-5 kt, which is far too weak to blow this system out on top of a 138 degree SE 48-hour mean. Expect salty green in the throat, with a touch more stain along the bay-side shoreline the SW wind blows into.

Redfish will be tailing the shallow sand early on the fall - gold spoon or a live mullet under a cork. Flounder should be on the drains as the water pulls out toward the 12:13 PM low.

SSE at 6-12 kt building to 14 mph SE by afternoon puts chop and some stain back on the bay side - first clarity slip of the week, though the direction is still the right one. Tide is another weak morning fall, 0.73 ft at 5:07 AM down to 0.57 ft at 12:54 PM, so movement is soft but it does run through sunrise. At 11-12 kt you are drifting soft plastics on the windward edge, not walking topwater all day, which keeps it EITHER with bait closing the gap as the chop builds.

Fish it before the wind builds. Bone Super Spook Jr at first light on the bar, then drift the windward edge with a Down South Super Model on a 1/4 oz head in plum/chartreuse or Chicken on a Chain - the extra weight beats the line sag at 12 kt. With stain building, go a shade darker and louder than earlier in the week. Keep casts short and downwind so you can feel the bite, and work the seam where clean meets dirty.

This is a popping cork day - live shrimp under a rattling cork drifted along the windward bar edge, popped loud so they can find it in the stain. Free-lined live croaker on a 3/0 still gets the better trout early on the fall. Finger mullet on a light Carolina rig holds bottom better than shrimp once the chop stands up in the afternoon.

The SSE flow keeps feeding Gulf water into the throat, but 12-14 mph across the bay stirs the back side up and dirties the shoreline. Gulf-side bars will be a full shade cleaner than anything behind the pass today.

Redfish like this chop - cut mullet on a fish-finder rig on the beach side or a live mullet under a cork in the stained water. Flounder on the down-current lips of the guts through the morning fall. Stay off the channel side with wind and current both running.